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Bayesian Decision Analysis

Description:

Bayesian decision analysis is the gold-standard of decision-support methods. With this tool, the computer can combine the available information, which can come from the user or from the other data mining algorithms, the available choices, and your value system in order to optimize the underlying decision.

While human decision-makers are usally limited to taking into account only a couple of data points and only a few different options at the same time, the Bayesian decision support engine does not have these limitations. In fact, Bayesian decision support engines can solve very complex sets of interdependant decisions all at the same time, taking into account huge masses of information, and the decision maker's risk preferences.

Bayesian decision support also allows the mining of the decision itself for additional information. For instance, the value of control is the value associated with being able to control the result of some future uncertainty, such as whether or not you win the lottery tomorrow. The value of information is similar to the value of control. The value of information is the value associated with knowing the result of a future uncertainty prior to making a decision, such as knowing whether of not your lottery ticket will win prior to deciding to buy a ticket.


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